FIXED MATCHES DRAW TODAY
FIXED MATCHES DRAW TODAY
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Date: 17.09.2022 Day: Saturday
League: ENGLAND Premier League
Match: Tottenham vs Leicester
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.55 Fulltime 6:2
Date: 17.09.2022 Day: Saturday
League: SPAIN La Liga
Match: Barcelona vs Elche
Tip: HOME WIN / HOME WIN & OVER 2.5 GOALS
Odds: 1.60 Halftime 2:0 Fulltime 3:0
Date: 17.09.2022 Day: Saturday
League: SCOTLAND Premiership
Match: Rangers vs Dundee Utd
Tip: HOME WIN / HOME WIN
Odds: 1.50 Halftime 1:0 / Fulltime 2:1
Date: 17.09.2022 Day: Saturday
GERMANY Bundesliga
Match: Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
Tip: AWAY TEAM & OVER 2.5 GOALS
Odds: 1.50 Fulltime ?:?
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Poisson Distribution, coupled with historical data, provides a simple and reliable method for calculating the most likely score in a FIXED MATCHES DRAW TODAY which can be applied to betting matches. This simple walk-through shows how to calculate the necessary Attack/Defence Strength measures. In no time you’ll be predicting soccer scores using the Poisson Distribution.
Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution. For example, if we know Manchester City average 1.7 goals per game, so by putting the Poisson Distribution formula tells us that this average equates to Manchester City scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.
Poisson Distribution – FIXED MATCHES DRAW TODAY
Before we can use Poisson to calculate the most likely score-line of a match, we need to calculate the average number of goals each team is likely to correct score in that fixed match. This can be calculated by determining the “Attack Strength” and “Defence Strength” for each team and comparing them.
Selecting a representative data range is vital when calculating Attack Strength and Defence Strength – too long and the data will not be relevant for the team’s current strength, while too short may allow outliers to skew the data. The 38 rigged games played by each team in the 2015/16 EPL season will provide a sufficient sample size to apply the Poisson Distribution.
How to calculate Attack Strength
The first step in calculating Attack Strength based upon last season’s agreed results is to determine the average number of goals scored per team, per home game, and per away game.
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Calculate this by taking the total number of goals scored last season and dividing it by the number of games played:
- Season total goals scored at home / number of games (in season)
- Season total goals scored away / number of games (in season)
In 2015/16 English Premier League season, there were 567/380 at home and 459/380 away, equalling an average of 1.492 goals per game at home and 1.207 away.
- Average number of goals scored at home: 1.492
- Average number of goals scored away: 1.207
The ratio of a team’s average and the league average is what constitutes “Attack Strength”.
How to calculate Defence Strength
We’ll also need the average number of goals an average team concedes. This is simply the inverse of the above numbers (as the number of goals a home team scores will equal the FIXED MATCHES DRAW TODAY that an away team concedes):
- Average number of goals conceded at home: 1.207
- Average number of goals conceded away from home: 1.492
The ratio of a team’s average and the league average is what constitutes “Defence Strength”.
We can now use the numbers above to calculate the Attack Strength and Defence Strength of both.
Predicting FIXED MATCHES DRAW TODAY
Calculate Tottenham’s Attack Strength:
- Step – 1: Take the number of goals scored at home last season by the FIXED MATCHES DRAW TODAY (Tottenham: 35) and divide by the number of home games (35/19): 1.842.
- Step – 2: Divide this value by the season’s average home goals scored per game (1.842/1.492) to get an “Attack Strength” of 1.235.
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Calculate Everton’s Defence Strength:
- Step – 1: Take the number of goals conceded away from home last season by the away team (Everton: 25) and divide by the number of away games (25/19): 1.315.
- Step – 2: Divide this by the season’s average goals conceded by an away team per game (1.315/1.492) to get a “Defence Strength” of 0.881.
We can now use the following formula to calculate the likely number of goals Tottenham might score (this is done by multiplying Tottenham’s Attack Strength by Everton’s Defence Strength and the average number of home goals in the Premier League):
Predicting Everton’s goals
To calculate the number of goals Everton might FIXED MATCHES DRAW TODAY, simply use the above formulas but replace the average number of home goals with the average number of away goals.
In the same way we predicted the number of goals Tottenham will score. We can calculate the likely number of goals Everton might score (done by multiplying Everton’s Attack Strength by Tottenham’s Defence Strength and the average number of away goals in the Premier League).
