Safe VIP Prediction Tips
Safe VIP Prediction Tips
DAILY FREE TIPS
(IMPORTANT: Tips are singles)
Date: 21.10.2022 Day: Friday
League: ENGLAND Professional Development League
Match: Ipswich U21 vs Bristol City U21
Tip: AWAY WIN
Odds: 2.30 Fulltime 3:2
Date: 21.10.2022 Day: Friday
League: GERMANY Regionalliga Sudwest
Match: FC 08 Homburg vs Mainz II
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.80 Fulltime 0:3
Date: 21.10.2022 Day: Friday
League: GERMANY Regionalliga Bayern
Match: Augsburg II vs Spvgg Ansbach 09
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.95 Fulltime 3:1
Date: 21.10.2022 Day: Friday
League: GERMANY Regionalliga Nordost
Match: Erfurt vs TB Berlin
Tip: Home win
Odds: 1.40 Fulltime 3:0
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Many Safe VIP Prediction Tips “casual” bettors choose their bets through “gut feeling” about what they think will happen during an event, an approach which does not lend itself to profitable betting. Does this mean more skill bettors can rule out utilising their intuition entirely?
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Braden had seen millions of serves and could intuitively spot the signs of a double fault before the error happened. He was able to calculate the chance of a double fault by analysing a player’s swing and comparing it to the countless service attempts he had seen before.
If it could utilise the inputs Braden was able to, a data-driven approach to predicting double faults would work in much the same way. It would essentially take those inputs and compare them to the same data on all other serves in the database before determining its similarity to other double faults.
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Certainly, there are successful bettors, such as Lewis Deyong, who attribute their success to an intuitive grasp of probability. If a bettor could reach a similar level of skill then simply betting intuitively could be profitable, but is that a realistic prospect?
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Knutson understood this but correctly pointed out that “Bob’s eyes can’t evaluate every touch in every game across 27 different leagues”. Whilst Bradley’s expert intuition might have been more accurate than the data in isolate circumstances, it could not be utilise across the sheer breadth of games need to compete with the insight offer by big data.
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Equally, the data may flag up that the bettor’s intuitive judgement about the SAFE VIP PREDICTION TIPS is in fact wrong. Perhaps Barcelona have been very poor this season or have lost a range of key players. The bettor’s assumption that “Barcelona are a good team” may no longer apply.
“Gut (or intuition) is shorthand for many of the remarkable qualities of human cognition: an ability to rapidly spot patterns, make associations, combine a rich set of personal experiences and innumerable data points to form a judgment.”
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Removing the power of intuition from betting strategy entirely would eliminate a huge data source. Equally, to rely on intuition alone would be a very risky approach to betting as it is solely reliant on the accuracy of the bettor’s grasp of probabilities, which may well be less accurate than he assumes.
As with many topics, a combination of the two approaches is perhaps the strongest approach to forming a successful betting strategy.
Combining the intuitive talent of the sports betting equivalent of Vic Braden with the breadth available to a good data led model would be the ideal scenario. They could both benefit from the insight of the other. It would, therefore, seem churlish then for bettors to write off intuition entirely.
With West Ham, on one end of the scale, and Liverpool and Chelsea on the other, this article measures the extent of the surprise factor for each EPL team by applying a technique used to evaluate the accuracy of weather predictions.
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The current Premiership table leads to a couple of unexpected outcomes – Leicester in third position, West Ham in top six and Chelsea in a part of the table where you have to scroll down.
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One of the best available predictors for an outcome, especially if you believe in efficient markets, are betting odds fixed matches 1×2. Hence, teams that perform differently than what predicted are either over-performers or under-performers.
The Brier score can range from 0, if odds guessed the outcome directly by stating there is 100% chance of only one outcome to be correct, to 2, if odds implied that one outcome is certain and that did not occur.
However, if we had to just throw outcomes at random and say that a home win, draw or away win are equally likely, then our Brier score would be 0.667, irrespective of the outcome.
The table below shows the Brier score per team in the Premiership. What we note is that some of the surprises are actually vindicated in the stats: Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham are not performing as expected while for Arsenal and Manchester City it is business as usual.
Football is unpredictable
Football fixed matches betting odds is unpredictable.
That Soccer fixed match 1×2 bets gives the sport its appeal inspires the fans and also gives betting punters a headache week in, week out. Using a verification measure like the Brier Score gives betters a more systematic point of view as to what is happening in the league right now.
However, should it be the only measure use, it will still be limit by the beautiful fact that football halftime fulltime fixed matches is a sport play by, organize by, coach by and watch by human beings. As such, always price in the possibility of a process error.
