Tag: AGREED SOCCER MATCHES

BIG ODDS FIXED MATCHES

BIG ODDS FIXED MATCHES

BIG ODDS FIXED MATCHES

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Date: 16.09.2022     Day: Friday

League: POLAND Division 1
Match: Arka Gdynia  vs  Chrobry Glogow
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.75     Fulltime 3:4

 

Date: 16.09.2022     Day: Friday

League: BULGARIA Parva liga
Match: CSKA 1948 Sofia  vs  Septemvri Sofia
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.30       Fulltime 1:0

 

Date: 16.09.2022     Day: Friday

League: CYPRUS First Division
Match: Anorthosis  vs  Chloraka
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.40    Fulltime 1:1

 

Date: 16.09.2022     Day: Friday

EUROPE GERMANY 3. Liga
Match: Munich 1860   vs  Aue
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.75    Fulltime 3:1

FREE FIXED MATCHES 1/2  [email protected]
WhatsApp number: +46 73 149 05 65

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Compare your predictions against the odds

It is important to remember that your soccer predictions don’t have to be exactly right in order to make a consistent profit from betting. They just need to be more accurate BIG ODDS FIXED MATCHES than the bookmaker and rest of the market. You also need to be right more often than you are wrong (losing is part of the process of winning in betting).

Once you have a method to make your soccer predictions.  They need to be convert into probability and compare against the odds offer by the bookmaker. When you have inefficiencies (your estimated probability of something happening is higher than what the bookmaker thinks). It is referr to as an “edge” – you can then stake amounts relative to your edge.

Measuring your return on investment from betting is a clear gauge of how successful you have been. However, this doesn’t give any indication of to how much skill is involved. BIG ODDS FIXED MATCHES closing line (the most efficient in the market). It is the most accurate reflection of what might happen before an event starts. So analysing your betting through a closing odds comparison can highlight how often you find value. If the bets you place have value, over time the profit will follow.

BIG ODDS FIXED MATCHES

Don’t always trust other vip soccer predictions

Betting sure fixed matches daily

Given the level of difficulty in making successful sure soccer predictions over a long period of time. The temptation might be to copy (or pay) someone who appears to be good at it. The rise of best tipsters proves how people are more willing to put their faith in someone else. Rather than their own BIG ODDS FIXED MATCHES and with plenty of apparent “proof” of a good record, it’s easy to see why.

The first thing to remember when using these kinds of services is that the more people that use them. The less value it holds. This begs the question; why would people choose to give it away? Secondly, while you need to take the sample size of results into account. There is also an element of trust involved when analyzing tipster records.

BIG ODDS FIXED MATCHES

Set your aim, measure success and adapt.

The difficulty in making soccer predictions shouldn’t be underestimated. There are steps one can take to inform these predictions and make them more accurate. But making a consistent profit from them is another task altogether. Before you start you need a clear aim of what you want to try and predict and how you intend to do it.

Data is imperative when it comes to BIG ODDS FIXED MATCHES. This will then help build a betting model that can be used to test your predictions and see if they make a profit. Whether or not you make profit using your model. It needs to be constantly refined, maintained and continually tested to ensure long-term success.

How to predict which matches are more likely to end in a draw

Professional bettors for today tips

Unlike higher-scoring sports, such as rugby and American football. A soccer match has a significant chance of ending up as a draw. In this article, our soccer expert, Mark Taylor, shows how to predict which matches are more likely to end in a draw. Easier said than done? Read on to find out.

Roughly 24% of Premier League matches finished in a stalemate between the 2013/14 season and 2017/18 season. The most likely drawn score line was 1-1 (42% of all draws) followed by a goalless game (32%) and 2-2 (22%).

Therefore, draws comprise around a quarter of the outcomes in a Premier League game. A season and are also an important component of bets made in the handicap betting markets.

Intuitively, a draw is more likely between two sides of relatively equal ability. Once the venue has been factored into the calculation.

A title contender hosting a struggling team will usually see the implied probability of a stalemate quoted at around 14%, whereas two mid-table teams in opposition will see the probabilities rise to around 30%.

This can be confirmed by applying the widely used Poisson Distribution to two nominally chosen equal sides.

Although a pure Poisson approach slightly underestimates the likelihood of a draw occurring in football, requiring an adjustment, the methodology is relatively straightforward.

RESEARCHED FIXED SOCCER MATCHES

RESEARCHED FIXED SOCCER MATCHES

RESEARCHED FIXED SOCCER MATCHES

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Date: 06.09.2022     Day: Tuesday

League: EUROPE Champions League – Group Stage
Match: RB Leipzig vs  Shakhtar Donetsk
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.35     Fulltime 1:4

 

Date: 06.09.2022     Day: Tuesday

League: EUROPE Champions League – Group Stage
Match: Salzburg vs  AC Milan
Tip: AWAY TEAM WIN
Odds: 2.00     Fulltime 1:1

 

Date: 06.09.2022     Day: Tuesday

League: EUROPE Champions League – Group Stage
Match: Benfica  vs  Maccabi Haifa
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.40    Result: 2:0

 

Date: 06.09.2022     Day: Tuesday

League: EUROPE Champions League – Group Stage
Match: Sevilla  vs  Manchester City
Tip: OVER 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.65    Result: 0:4

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WhatsApp number: +46 73 149 05 65

Gambling sure manipulated games

Betting on RESEARCHED FIXED SOCCER MATCHES  is one of the most popular soccer markets for recreational bettors. In this article betting expert Joseph Buchdahl analyses correct score betting using “true” score odds. Is correct score betting profitable ? Read on to find out.

Whenever I walk past a bookmaker on my RESEARCHED FIXED SOCCER MATCHES I am always met with an enticing offer of a correct score bet to lure me into the shop. Typically, such offers will say something like “Tottenham to win 2-0 pays £100 for a £10 stake”.

Whilst the rewards look attractive, these adverts do not exist for the benefit of the customer. Rather, they hide what the bookmakers know is a large advantage for them. This article will investigate just how large that advantage really is.

Correct score betting

A popular market in football betting is predicting the final score of a game. Unlike straight match odds for which there are just three possible outcomes – home, draw or away – there are many more possible scores.

Bookmakers will typically limit the number of correct score odds to a maximum number of goals per team. If we call that number n, the maximum number of possible scores quote by the bookmaker is then given by the formula (n+1)2. For example, games that finish with anything from 0 to 6 goals for either team can have 49 possible scores.

RESEARCHED FIXED SOCCER MATCHES

Unsurprisingly, the odds for correct score betting are considerably longer than the match odds. That is because each possible score has a much lower chance of happening than just a straight home, draw or away result. Even the most common scores – 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1 – have all occurred less than 12% of the time throughout English football league history.

Betting correct scores 

The Favourite – RESEARCHED FIXED SOCCER MATCHES

In June 2016 I wrote about something called the favourite–longshot bias. This is the tendency for bettors to overvalue (and over-bet) longshots and undervalue (and under-bet) favourites. Because we are rather poor at assessing true probabilities, particularly for events that have either a very low or very high probability of outcome, we will readily wager too much money on things that have little chance of happening and not enough on things that are very likely to happen.

At the same time, bookmakers must protect themselves against the possibility of large payouts, particularly when prediction errors for lower probability outcomes can have a much greater impact (as we will see later in the article). As a consequence, they will shorten prices for longshots considerably more than for favourites when applying their margin.

Modelling correct scores

RESEARCHED FIXED SOCCER MATCHES=

In April 2017, fixedmatches.cc author Benjamin Cronin showed us how to use the Poisson distribution to predict the correct score of a football match.

Whilst not a perfect model for predicting correct scores (it considers home and away goals as independent whilst in reality they will not be) it does a pretty reasonable job of simulating score probabilities which closely correlate with actual result frequencies. Specifically, Ben looked at the game played between Tottenham and Everton during the 2016/17 Premiership campaign.

By looking at games the two clubs had played the season before, Ben’s model predicted Tottenham would score 1.623 goals. Obviously, this is an absurdity; teams don’t actually score fractions of goals. Statistically, however, this is telling us is that Tottenham could be expected to score an average of 1.623 goals if playing many games at home against a team as strong (or weak) as Everton.

Rigged football results 

Comparing modelled and actual betting odds

How do these ‘true’ correct score odds compare to actual published odds for that game? The average market prices as recorded by the odds comparison Oddsportal.com are shown below.

The theoretical margin for this book is 40%. A casual comparison of this table with the ‘true’ odds above reveals that as the score becomes less likely, the actual odds start to deviate significantly from the ‘true’ ones. Clearly, just as for match odds, the bookmaker does not apply his margin equally across all outcomes. The less probable the outcome, the larger the specific margin weight for that score.

Best market odds. The theoretical margin for the best prices that were available is still 14%.

The Favourite–Longshot Bias and correct score betting

The simplest way to estimate the strength of the specific margin weight applied by the bookmaker for each score is to divide the actual odds by the modelled ‘true’ odds.

For example, the 0-0 score had an average RESEARCHED FIXED SOCCER MATCHES of 11.23. Dividing this by the modelled price for the RESEARCHED FIXED SOCCER MATCHES – 11.55 – gives a figure of 97.2%. This is equivalent to the expected return on investment (ROI) a bettor could expect to make. For every $100 wagered, he would expect to return $97.20 or lose $2.80.