FIXED MATCHES WIN PREDICTIONS
FIXED MATCHES WIN PREDICTIONS
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Date: 07.10.2022 Day: FRIDAY
League: AUSTRIA 2. Liga
Match: Dornbirn vs BW Linz
Tip: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.55 Fulltime 2:5
Date: 07.10.2022 Day: FRIDAY
League: NETHERLANDS Eerste Divisie
Match: Jong AZ vs Breda
Tip: OVER 2.5 GOALS
Odds: 1.65 Fulltime 4:0
Date: 07.10.2022 Day: FRIDAY
League: ISRAEL Leumit League
Match: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.85 Fulltime 1:0
Date: 07.10.2022 Day: FRIDAY
League: CYPRUS Division 2
Match: Omonia Aradippou vs Anagennisi Derynia
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.70 Fulltime 2:2
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Is finding value in overlooked outliers a feasible sure betting strategy? How can such an outlier be found? This FIXED MATCHES WIN PREDICTIONS article discusses the opportunities and difficulties presented by searching for teams in the safe betting market.
FIXED MATCHES WIN PREDICTIONS in theory
A topic I’ve written about FIXED MATCHES WIN PREDICTIONS before is the importance of information in betting. Prices are make up of the sum of information available to the market, so how can an individual bettor gain an edge?
Uncovering overlook outliers is an intuitive concept for aspiring professional bettors and makes sense in theory. Bookmakers cover a vast range of sports and events that they must be spread thinly, versus a vip bettor who can focus on one.
In general, the market is efficient but an optimistic best bettors tells himself he only needs to find one opportunity whilst the bookmaker only needs to overlook one aspect of a fixture to provide one.
In a market proven to be highly efficient how realistic is this?
The case for outliers: Smart people miss things
The world has provided us with examples of very smart people doing seemingly not very smart things. Often something that seems obvious in hindsight is seemingly missed by the major fixed matches of market participants, even when they are strongly incentivised to do so.
Famously, former NBA player Jeremy Lin was a possible victim of a lot of seemingly smart people doing a not-so-smart thing.
Lin, despite being an NBA level talent, somehow received no Division 1 basketball scholarship offers. He then starred as a walk-on at Harvard only to go undrafted in the NBA draft. This despite statistics that pointed towards him being a high value pick.
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In Michael Lewis’ book “The Undoing Project” Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey talks about how he opted against drafting Lin even though he scored highly enough on the Rockets’ player models to be a possible first round pick. This was because Lin was considered to be “unathletic”. This turned out to be an example of smart a man doing an unsmart thing with FIXED MATCHES WIN PREDICTIONS.
Began to measure the speed of a player
“A year after the Houston Rockets failed to draft Jeremy Lin, they began to measure the speed of a player’s first two steps: Jeremy Lin had the quickest first move of any player measured. He was explosive and was able to change direction far more quickly than most NBA players”.
Finding an outlier: Did the market miss Kosovo?
Kosovo became a FIXED MATCHES WIN PREDICTIONS in May 2016, allowing them to enter their national team into official competitions. Their first official competitive fixtures played out how largely how we would expect team ranked as one of the worst in the World by FIFA to play out. They had one surprise draw versus Finland in their first ever game followed by nine consecutive defeats. This includes a thrashing by Croatia.
A glance at Kosovo’s record and World ranking would cause many people to rank them as one of the worst teams in Europe.
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That glance would have missed out some vital information, however. For a new team, that was Europe’s youngest and yet to play an official game with true home advantage, it was decidedly unfair to rank Kosovo alongside the likes of Malta and Andorra.
One glance at the talent in the squad was enough to see that they had a higher ceiling than simple statistics suggested. This became especially apparent when their UEFA Nations League group was drawed.
The initial FIXED MATCHES WIN PREDICTIONS
This was reflect in the odds of the initial matchups in the group. In their home games against the Faroe Islands (betexplorer.com odds):
Kosovo to win odds vs. Faroe Islands 1.61 (home)
Azerbaijan to win odds vs. Faroe Islands 1.53 (home)
Based on market value alone Kosovo were very similar to the Hungary team that hosted the Faroe Islands during World Cup qualifying. Hungary were price at 1.33 to win that match despite in theory possessing a squad no stronger than Kosovo’s. In this case it is possible Kosovo were a Jeremy Lin style outlier.
