Tag: BETTING FOOTBALL AGREED MATCHES

SURE BETS FIXED SOCCER MATCHES

SURE BETS FIXED SOCCER MATCHES

SURE BETS FIXED SOCCER MATCHES

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Date: 18.09.2022     Day: Sunday

League: DENMARK 1st Division
Match: Vejle  vs  Hobro
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.35     Fulltime 2:0

 

Date: 18.09.2022     Day: Sunday

League: NORWAY OBOS-ligaen
Match: KFUM  vs  Oslo Bryne
Tip: OVER  2.5 GOALS
Odds: 1.60      Fulltime 3:3

 

Date: 18.09.2022     Day: Sunday

League: PORTUGAL Liga Portugal
Match: Benfica  vs  Maritimo
Tip: HOME WIN / HOME WIN
Odds: 1.50  Halftime 1:0  / Fulltime 5:0

 

Date: 18.09.2022     Day: Sunday

League: BULGARIA Parva liga
Match: Ludogorets  vs  Arda
Tip: HOME WIN
Odds: 1.30    Fulltime 1:1

 

Date: 18.09.2022     Day: Sunday

League: GERMANY Bundesliga 
Match: Hoffenheim  vs  Freiburg
Tip: OVER  2.5 GOALS
Odds: 1.80      Fulltime 0:0

 

Date: 18.09.2022     Day: Sunday

League: NORWAY  Eliteserien
Match:  Molde  vs  Aalesund
Tip: OVER  2.5 GOALS
Odds: 1.50       Fulltime 3:0

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It is commonly assumed that a market’s closing price is the most efficient, or accurate source, of all betting matches prices. SURE BETS FIXED SOCCER MATCHES Reflecting as it does the most amount of information available about a game. If, after the influence of the margin, it reflects the ‘true’ probability of something happening. Then any amount you beat it by will be a measure of the expected advantage you hold.

Beat it by 10% and you can expect to make a 10% profit over the long run. There are others, however, who have argued that whilst beating the closing line is an important sign of skill. It is not necessarily a prerequisite. For that to work, however, it implies that closing prices cannot always be fully efficient. Best betting bookies in the world bet365.com.

In this article I want to attempt to reconcile these two positions, looking again at the concept of efficiency and in particular the efficiency of SURE BETS FIXED SOCCER MATCHES bet’s closing prices as a means of arriving at a consensus. I’ll say now that the read might not be for the faint-hearted, being a journey into my statistical thought experiment.

SURE BETS FIXED SOCCER MATCHES

When I embarked on it I wasn’t sure what I would find. Even at the end I still remain unsure about the conclusions, but stay with me. It might not be as fun a trip through SURE BETS FIXED SOCCER MATCHES, but hopefully it will be more enlightening for those aspiring to be sharp bettors.

Fixed sure football matches

What is market efficiency?

Over the past few years I’ve talked quite a lot about the concept of market efficiency. In a betting games context, an efficient market is one where the betting odds accurately reflect. The underlying outcome probabilities of the events in question. For example, if the ‘true’ probability of Manchester City inflicting humiliation on their rivals Manchester United was 70%. Then odds of 1.429, before the bookmaker added their margin, would be efficient.

Naturally, for a fixed single match, there is one or other result, and a bet on Manchester City will win or lose. However, repeated many hundreds or thousands of times. The good and bad luck of individual bets on individual games will cancel out (the law of large numbers). Hence, it is still meaningful to talk of the ‘true’ probability of a result. Even though in practice it is impossible to know precisely. That, after all, is what the betting sure odds are a reflection of.

Market efficiency is an interesting concept applied to large samples. However, for single events if we can’t really know what the ‘true’ probability of an outcome actually is, how can we ever know how efficient the betting vip matches price was?

Sure, we can test a large sample of bets, say, with fair odds (no margin) of 2.00. If 50% of them win that tells us that in aggregate the average win probability of those bets was probably 50% and hence on average the odds of those bets were a reasonable reflection of their underlying win SURE BETS FIXED SOCCER MATCHES. But it tells us nothing about the individual win probabilities of those bets that contributed to the overall average. A market might be collectively efficient but masking underlying efficiencies on a bet-by-bet basis.