Date: 24.08.2022     Day: Wednesday

League: DENMARKLandspokal Cup
Match: Helsingor  vs  Lyngby
Tip: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.65    Result: 2:0

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The ACCURATE SINGLE FIXED MATCHES  are a hot topic in the soccer community. What is an expectation in goals and how can this stat be used to improve analysis ? Read on to find out everything you need to know about the expected goals stat.


Expected goals (xG) – the number of goals a team or player would be expected to score base on the quality and quantity of shots taken.

Expected goals per 90 (xG/90) – Expect goals per 90 minutes played by a specific player.

Non-penalty expected goals (npxG) – Total expect goals minus expect goals from penalties.

Expected goals for (xGf) – The number of goals a team expect to have scored based on the quality and quantity of shots taken.

Expect goals against (xGa) – The number of goals a team expect to have concede based on the quality and quantity of shots they have taken.

Expect goals assisted (xA) – The number of assists a player expect to have made based on the quality and quantity of the shots taken directly from their passes.

Expected points (xPts) – The number of points a team is expected to have won base on expect goals data.

What is expected goals? Expect goals explained

Expected goals is a metric which assesses the chance of a shot becoming a ACCURATE SINGLE FIXED MATCHES. It provides a good way to judge the quality of shots since a shot with a 0.4 expected goal (xG) value should be score 40% of the time. An xG is the maximum value which signifies that a player has a 100% chance of scoring. Depending on the model, several factors are taken into account while evaluating expected goals.

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Expected goals can be beneficial because they increase the sample size used when analysing soccer. Soccer is a low-scoring game and goals are a rare event. As a result, pure goals data can sometimes be misleading.

There are numerous examples every season where the team who created more chances ultimately loses the match. Basic goal data has trouble reflecting this and may be unrepresentative of the actual game as a result. Expect goals take chances into account by calculating the number of goals that, on average, are score from each position.


Prior to expect goals, metrics like total shots or shots on target were use to attempt to analyse games. Like goals, these stats can be misleading. Total shots count an attempt from the halfway line as equal to a shot from inside the six-yard box.

During the 2014/15 Bundesliga season Borussia Monchengladbach’s Granit Xhaka and Mainz 05’s Yunus Malli took a similar number of shots per 90.

Despite taking more ACCURATE SINGLE FIXED MATCHES per 90 minutes played, Xhaka was unable to match Malli’s xG output. Malli scored 6 goals to Xhaka’s 0 despite playing fewer minutes. Malli primarily shot from close range with 70.7% of his attempts taken from inside the penalty area. In contrast, 64% of Xhaka’s were from outside the box.

Malli shot less than Xhaka but from better locations. Expected goals shows the higher value of these attempts and provides a quick and easy way to factor. The players shot locations and types into the data. This allows for a better analysis of the difference between the two players.

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Factors Used To Determine Expected Goals

As discussed above, the location of the shot is a big part of a shot’s xG rating. We take several factors into account since matches have become more sophisticated than ever before and our team aims to make them more accurate than any other information provider.

Some models now factor in everything from the body part used to take the shot through to defensive positioning, attack speed and where the first possession of the attack started.

Which expected goals model is most accurate?

There is some debate as to which expected goals model is most accurate. Fortunately, fixedmatch.bet have an article discussing the merits of different expected goals models.


.A good example of how a basic goals analysis can be misleading is the August 2017 Premier League game between Arsenal and Stoke. The 1-1 result suggested the game was evenly match. It is evident that using this draw as a predictor of future Premier League success would be problematic.

Using expected goals analysis we can see that in the long-run Arsenal could expect to win this game 55% of the time. This is much more useful for predicting future performance since we can minimise the effect of scoreline variance. Using this data it is clearer that Arsenal are likely to perform better than Stoke in the long-run